Boston goes for sweep of Rays behind Lackey

Baseball Betting Lines

05/26/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Starting pitching was supposed to be one of the Red Sox's strengths in 2010. That has been the case over their current four-game winning streak, but things could go sour quick if John Lackey can't find his form.

The struggling Lackey, who will start opposite of one of the American League's top young hurlers in the Rays' Matt Garza, will try to lead Boston to its first sweep in St. Petersburg in over seven years tonight when his club wraps up a three-game set with Tampa Bay at Tropicana Field.

The Red Sox have matched their longest winning streak of the season, winning for the fourth straight time last night with a 2-0 victory over the Rays. Boston's starters have picked up the win in each of those four victories while posting a collective 0.32 earned run average.

It's been a nice turnaround for the Red Sox, who were swept in four games by the Rays at Fenway Park on April 17-19. Boston aims for its first sweep of the Rays in Tampa Bay since taking all four games of a series in St. Petersburg from Sept. 9-12, 2002.

Boston would love for Lackey to join the pitching parade after signing him to a five-year, $82.5 million deal this offseason. However, he has struggled to just a 4-3 record this season with a 5.07 ERA.

Lackey has pitched to a 7.50 ERA over his last three starts and lost his second in a row on Friday in Philadelphia, giving up four runs on six hits and five walks while needing 107 pitches to get through five innings.

It was Lackey's shortest outing since the 31-year-old righty lasted just 3 1/3 innings in a setback to the Rays on April 19. Lackey was drilled for eight runs on nine hits in that outing, including a five-run third inning in which Evan Longoria hit a two-run double and B.J. Upton followed with a three-run homer.

That outing came one day after Garza threw eight shutout innings of four-hit ball in a win at Fenway Park, improving to 6-2 with a 2.92 ERA in 13 career starts versus the Red Sox.

Garza, who is tied for second in the American League with a 2.37 ERA, has pitched eight innings in five of his starts this year, including Friday versus the Astros. The right-hander allowed two runs on six hits, but took a tough 2-1 loss to fall to 5-2 on the season. The 26-year-old Garza is 0-1 in his last three starts despite a 2.91 ERA.

Garza will be looking to slow down Boston slugger David Ortiz, who is hitting just .136 (3-for-22) lifetime against Garza with two homers and four RBI.

After hitting just .143 in April, Ortiz is batting .359 this month with eight homers and 21 RBI. He slugged a two-run double in the third inning on Tuesday to back six scoreless innings from winning pitcher Jon Lester.

Lester allowed Tampa Bay's only hit, a single to Willy Aybar in the fourth inning, but also walked a season-high five with nine strikeouts to combine with three other pitchers on the shutout. Jonathan Papelbon notched his 11th save of the season and helped the Red Sox win for the seventh time in their last eight games.

"I had a hard time getting into a rhythm," said Lester. "It was one of those nights; it was just kind of a battle from the beginning. I was just not in a rhythm, not in the flow of the game, just kind of had a thick feeling. It's obviously nice to get out of there without any runs."

Jason Bartlett walked three times for the Rays, who have lost three of five since a six-game win streak, and James Shields took a tough-luck loss despite giving up just the two runs over eight innings and retiring the final 16 batters he faced.

"I'm not in any way discouraged," Rays manager Joe Maddon told his team's website. "I just really hate wasting that good of a pitching performance."

Maddon was ejected in the fifth inning along with Carl Crawford for arguing balls and strikes.

Crawford, meanwhile, could have a suspension coming after it appeared his helmet made contact with home-plate umpire Bob Davidson during a heated exchange after a called strike. Tampa Bay could certainly use Crawford tonight as he is 14-for-34 (.412) lifetime versus Lackey with a homer and seven RBI.

The Rays still lead the Yankees by five games for first place in the American League East, while the Red Sox have pulled to within 6 1/2 games.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.

Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds
Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State

It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it.

Work left to do:

Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney.

Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson.

Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable.

Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

For more College Basketball betting lines go to MySportsbook.com

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